Feb 18, 2026
3 min read
In particular, the United Kingdom has proposed to ban the sale of tobacco for generations under the "Tobacco and Vapes Bill".According to the study, this measure allows for faster achievement of public health goals and long-term benefits.
Generational sales ban essential to UK's aim of a tobacco-free generation
February 17, 2026
Author: National Anti-Smoking Committee
Last updated: 17 February 2026
Reading time: 6 minutes
The United Kingdom has proposed a generation ban on the sale of tobacco as part of the Tobacco and Smoking Act: This article will place a strict ban on the sale of cigarettes to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, and the ban will extend beyond sales to the majority of their generation.The law aims to create a "smoke-free generation" by 2030 and, if approved by the British Parliament, will enter into force next year [1].According to the new model, the ban will allow the achievement of public health goals faster without new laws and will have long-term benefits.However, many social and economic inequalities and lack of enforcement of tobacco control regulations require special attention to specific regions and populations.
Encourage bearish forecasts if generation sales are banned
Around 6 million adults smoke in the UK.Although smoking rates among teenagers have decreased over the last decade, according to Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) around 400,000 young people aged between 11 and 15 smoke and 100,000 of them currently smoke.Furthermore, according to Cancer Research UK[2], tobacco is responsible for more than a quarter of all cancer deaths.
According to a modeling study conducted by the University of Nottingham[3], smoking prevalence among 12 to 30-year-olds in England will fall below the 5% threshold by 2049, and several decades earlier than in the generational no-ban scenario.
If the UK government's model predicts that the number of new smokers will decrease by 30% each year compared to the previous year (based on the decrease observed after the UK raised the age of selling tobacco products from 16 to 18), the situation of the team of the University of Nottingham is very good, predicting a 5% decrease in new smokers each year compared to the data of international product sales and international product bans.government policies.
With these more conservative assumptions, the model's predictions suggest that the policy could reduce the decline in prevalence and achieve significant gains in health, especially in the long run, especially compared to a status quo.If the observed decline is consistent with the government's projections, the target of a 5% reduction in prevalence by the 2030s for a "tobacco-free generation" could be met.
Significant cumulative health benefits over a long period of time
The study estimates that the measure could generate about 88,000 new healthy lives by 2075 compared to no change, which would reduce pressure on health care systems and improve the quality of life for millions of people.This potential result indicates many health, but also social and economic benefits of smoking cessation policies.
En effet, les gains les plus importants sont attendus dans les communautés défavorisées, où le tabagisme est plus répandu : près de 30 % des années de vie supplémentaires concerneraient les 20 % des quartiers les plus défavorisés, contribuant à réduire de manière importante les inégalités sociales de santé.
It's a feat that should be courageous in the face of adversity
Hazel Chaseman, director general of Action on Smoking and Health (ASH England), highlights the potential positive effects of such measures, but calls for preparation and support for effective implementation of measures.
The researchers emphasize that the impact can vary depending on compliance with business rules, the strength of the control system (representatives responsible for these controls have seen their budgets reduced by 39% in the last ten years) but also depending on public and socio-economic factors.then, in 2055 for the first and 2059 for the second, except in the case of strategic plans.
Therefore, the study highlights the importance of strengthened support: adapted communication, systems to help quit smoking and specific investments in areas where the prevalence remains high, such as the South West, where more than 520,000 adults still smoke and where 6,500 smokers die every year without changes in recent years[4].
Supported by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), the research concludes that the measure could represent a major public health advance, subject to rigorous enforcement.
If passed, the legislation would place the UK among the countries and jurisdictions with the most ambitious anti-smoking policies in the world, which along with Wales have already adopted a generation-long ban on the sale of tobacco to anyone born on or after January 1, 2009, or the Maldives, which has banned the sale of tobacco on or after January 20 or later.
[1]A Tobacco Free Generation, UK health stakeholders call for action to ban smoking and vaping for younger generations, published 1 November 2025, accessed 12 February 2026
[2]Rebecca Whittaker, Smoke-free laws could cut tobacco use below 5% among young people, Independent, published 11 February 2026, accessed 12 February 2026
[3]Davies N, Murray R, Morling JR, o.fl., The impact of the UK smoke free policy on tobacco justice in England: a simulation study, Tobacco Control, birt 10. febrúar 2026, skoðuð 12. febrúar 2026
[4] Fifteen North Somerset Councils joined together to approve the urgent tobacco report of North Somerset Council, published February 11, 2026, accessed February 12, 2026.
