Mar 21, 2026
3 min read
According to many experts, a prolonged war against Iran could have serious consequences on the already weakened American economy.
For now, she says she's not worried about him.While the objectives of the US war against Iran remain unclear, the Republican administration in Washington ignores the possible consequences for the American economy.Including the recent rise in oil prices, which Donald Trump doesn't seem concerned about."The United States is by far the largest oil producer in the world, so when oil prices go up, we make a lot of money," the American leader said on March 12 on his Truth Social platform."BUT, as president, it is much more important to me to prevent the evil empire, Iran, from acquiring nuclear weapons and destroying the Middle East, or even the entire world."For him, the strategic importance of Israeli-American intervention against the Islamic Republic would therefore far outweigh the consequences for the American wallet.
Crude oil prices soar...And energy?
However, the prospect of a protracted war in the Middle East raises a number of concerns on the other side of the Atlantic.As with many Western or emerging powers, the partial blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world's oil passes, is not without impact on the price of gas at the borders of the United States.Hydrocarbon prices are exploding: On Wednesday, the price of a barrel of Brent exceeded $107, while its American counterpart, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), rose above $97.Very high number, which reflects the market under extreme tension on the closure of some production in the Arabian Peninsula and the bombing of some infrastructure.
Of course, Washington can rely on its oil imports to mitigate the damage, or take advantage of rising prices when exporting the black gold that is the result of its production.But, beyond this aspect of trade, the impact of such an increase in consumer prices can be very painful for companies and American families. The barrel, it is impossible," answered the American economist E.J. Antoni, speaking to the Financial Times. Last summer, Donald Trump considered appointing this expert to run the Bureau of Labor Statistics, before changing his mind.
Although he is in line with the Republican economic vision, he now points to the risks of higher inflation."The decline in energy prices seen in 2025 has contributed to lower prices across the economy," continued E.J.Antony, still quoted by the British daily."However, rising energy prices have the opposite effect and put upward pressure on prices across the economy."On Wednesday, March 18, the Fed kept its key interest rates unchanged in the face of such an inflationary outlook.Much to the chagrin of Donald Trump, who has been calling for the agency's head, Jerome Powell, to step down for months."An oil shock always puts pressure on spending and employment and inflation," the official said after the decision was announced.
However, in his speech, Jerome Powell emphasized the uncertainty caused by the war in the Middle East."We don't know what the consequences of this will be, and frankly no one knows," he said.planet.In this context, "despite the uncertainty associated with tariffs, the global economy showed improvement last year," explains Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, who was interviewed for the Les Echos article.But the expert added: "Uncertainty is systemic and persistent, and is like a tax on the economy."
However, the Republican administration is currently particularly vague about a possible end date for the war.After giving the order for the first bombings against Iran, Donald Trump spoke about the duration of the conflict "four to five weeks".If this continues, the consequences for the economy will become more severe as the weeks go by.First of all, the stagnation of the crisis will increase the "internal fragility" that the United States has already experienced in recent months, Gregory Dako, chief economist of the firm EY-Parthenon, explained to Politico."The normal safeguards that would prevent any type of external shock - such as an oil shock - from disproportionately affecting the economy are weaker than usual," he said.
The specter of “stagflation”
Vulnerabilities existed even before the outbreak of war in the Middle East.If 130,000 jobs were created in the United States in January, 92,000 jobs were lost the following month.The growth estimate for the last quarter of 2025 has been revised downwards from 1.4 percent to 0.7 percent.Like some other experts, Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001, sees the danger of "stagflation" in the United States, Amen.The unique combination of high unemployment, high inflation and slowing economic activity is having a detrimental effect on household consumption as well as business investment potential.After all, there are many factors that affect the creation of wealth in a country.In short, a disastrous scenario that the United States wants to avoid at all costs.
But at this stage, it is not the time for Washington to be depressed and discouraged. On Tuesday, Kevin Hassett admitted to CNBC that the prolonged war in the Middle East will "punish the consumers." "I have to think about the steps that we have to take if this situation continues," he added, noting that the issue now represents the "ultimate problem" of the Trump administration. Vice President J.D.Vance on Wednesday tried to appear more understanding of the problems faced by the American people with the increase in fuel prices.
